Publications

Journal Papers

Piecing together the puzzle: can policy packaging make carbon pricing work?
Jeroen Barrez & Kris Bachus

Published in Journal of Environmental Planning and Management:
Barrez, J. & Bachus, K. (2026). Piecing together the puzzle: can policy packaging make carbon pricing work?. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2026.2678180

ABSTRACT

Carbon pricing can be an effective instrument for mitigating climate change. Yet, despite some growth over the past decade, public attitudes remain a major barrier to a broader adoption of these policies. Drawing on a large-scale survey experiment in Belgium, we provide novel evidence that framing carbon pricing from the beginning of the policy process within a broader policy package can significantly enhance acceptability. We also contribute to the literature by investigating both the drivers for pure carbon pricing and carbon pricing packages in a single study. While climate concern, perceived effectiveness, and especially perceived fairness, are identified among the main factors explaining acceptability of carbon pricing policies, the expected financial impact on people’s own household is only a key factor for standalone carbon pricing. This suggests that revenue use can mitigate concerns about the financial impact, and more broadly that policy packaging can positively affect public acceptability of carbon pricing policies.

Seeking common ground? Heterogeneous support for carbon pricing and climate policies across audience segments
Jeroen Barrez

Published in Energy Research & Social Science:
Barrez, J. (2025). Seeking common ground? Heterogeneous support for carbon pricing and climate policies across audience segments. Energy Research & Social Science, 122, 103993. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.103993

ABSTRACT

Public resistance remains a significant barrier to implementing the ambitious climate policies that are needed to limit global warming below 2 degrees. While numerous studies have explored public support for climate policies in general, this paper advances the understanding by investigating whether (lack of) support towards carbon pricing and climate policies is concentrated among specific societal groups. A latent class analysis identifies five distinct audience segments in Belgium based on similar climate attitudes and behavioural intentions: the Alarmed (6.9 %), Concerned (38.3 %), Cautious (36.1 %), Disengaged (15.2 %), and Doubtful (3.6 %), and explores the characteristics of these segments. This research also highlights the heterogeneity in preferences across subgroups and shows that belonging to one segment strongly predicts support for climate policies. The Alarmed are most in favour of these policies, while the Doubtful show the least support. More importantly, this study provides novel insights into the acceptability of carbon pricing policies across these subgroups and reveals how revenue use can make carbon pricing acceptable to segments with more sceptical climate attitudes. More specifically, while environmental earmarking risks resulting in “preaching to the converted”, using revenues for non-climate policies such as reducing labour taxes could make carbon pricing acceptable among the Doubtful and Disengaged segments and lessen the risk of social unrest and contestation. More generally, this research shows that considering the heterogeneity of public preferences offers novel insights, and could ultimately help policymakers design and implement more effective carbon pricing and climate policies.

Public Acceptability of Carbon Pricing: Unravelling the Impact of Revenue Recycling
Jeroen Barrez

Published in Climate Policy:
Barrez, J. (2024). Public acceptability of carbon pricing: Unravelling the impact of revenue recycling. Climate Policy, 24(10), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2024.2376747

ABSTRACT

Carbon pricing has emerged as a prominent policy tool to mitigate climate change due to its proclaimed high efficiency and effectiveness. However, the successful and sustainable implementation of carbon pricing also depends on the public acceptability. This paper investigates how revenue recycling shapes public attitudes towards carbon pricing. A systematic literature review identified 48 relevant studies from 2004 to March 2023. Using qualitative content analysis I discern relevant factors and construct a typology of revenue recycling options. Subsequently, a consensus ordinal ranking of revenue recycling options, based on the empirical findings of the reviewed studies, synthesizes current knowledge. The results reveal that revenue recycling has a crucial impact on public acceptability. While environmental earmarking ranks highest, and reducing corporate taxes is the least preferred option, numerous other revenue recycling options lie between these two options. Moreover, the literature presents divergent findings regarding the level of public acceptability of specific revenue recycling options. The diversity of research contexts and designs introduces inherent limitations that may explain variations in rankings observed across different studies. Notably, I identify political trust related to and salience of revenue recycling as important factors affecting public acceptability of carbon pricing. Finally, this research offers a framework for policymakers seeking to design revenue recycling strategies that align with public preferences to implement carbon pricing.

Piecemeal Modeling of the Effects of Joint Direct and Indirect Tax Reforms
Bart Capéau, André Decoster & Stijn Van Houtven

Published in Public Finance Review:
Capéau, B., Decoster, A., & Van Houtven, S. (2024). Piecemeal Modeling of the Effects of Joint Direct and Indirect Tax Reforms. Public Finance Review52(1), 111-149.
https://doi.org/10.1177/10911421231198738

ABSTRACT

In this article, we elicit the assumptions needed for an assessment of a joint reform of personal income and indirect taxes in a consistent conceptual framework. One often lacks an encompassing model for both labor supply decisions in real world tax and benefit contexts and the allocation of disposable income to commodities. We characterize households’ labor supply decisions by a random utility random opportunity model of job choice. We illustrate the framework with a Belgian tax reform proposal that shifts the burden away from labor taxes to indirect taxation. We find substantial empirical evidence that, both from a distributional and from a budgetary perspective, it is important to account for the impact of indirect taxes on the labor supply decision of households. The cost recovery effects of the tax shift are negative. This is, among other things, explained by the income effect in our job choice model.

Reports

E4BEL: State of the Art on the Public Acceptability of Carbon Pricing
Jeroen Barrez & Kris Bachus

Barrez, J. & Bachus, K. (2023). E4BEL: State of the art on the public acceptability of carbon pricing. Report, BELSPO.

E4BEL: State of the Art on the Economic Impacts of Carbon Pricing
Bart Capéau, André Decoster, Joséphine Martiat, Stijn Van Houtven & Alex Van Steenbergen

Capéau, B., Decoster, A., Martiat, J., Van Houtven, S. & Van Steenbergen, A. (2023). E4BEL: State of the art on the economic impacts of carbon pricing. Report, BELSPO.

The Public Acceptability of Carbon Pricing: A Literature Review
Jeroen Barrez & Kris Bachus

Barrez, J. & Bachus, K. (2023). The public acceptability of carbon pricing: a literature review. Report, KU Leuven/HIVA.

Policy Briefs

The path of least resistance? Enhancing public acceptability of carbon pricing policies in Belgium
Jeroen Barrez

Barrez, J. (2025). The path of least resistance? Enhancing public acceptability of carbon pricing policies in Belgium. KIES Policy Brief No. 01. KU Leuven.
[Also available in Dutch and in French]

Working Papers

Skill and task content across Belgian sectors: implications for labour reallocation in the context of carbon pricing
Joséphine Martiat & Alex Van Steenbergen

Martiat, J. & Van Steenbergen, A. (2026). Skill and task content across Belgian sectors: implications for labour reallocation in the context of carbon pricing. Working Paper 202605, Federal Planning Bureau.

ABSTRACT

Standard economic models used to analyse climate policy often predict significant cross-sectoral shifts of the workforce. Assuming frictionless labour mobility, they do not capture potential barriers to intersectoral transitions, such as discrepancy in skills and tasks. Using the Job Skills Module of the Belgian Labour Force Survey, we construct a range of distance measures, capturing the difference in task content of jobs across sectors. We find that, on average, the tasks in high-emission sectors are the least similar to those in lower-emission sectors for medium-educated workers. This is due to the routine and manual nature of the manufacturing jobs that are typically held by high school graduates. Whilst the task gap is the smallest for low-educated workers, it is slightly wider for highly qualified workers, a situation largely driven by the health sector. These results are robust to different definitions of task content and distance measures between jobs.

Does Carbon Pricing Reinforce Job Polarization?
Joséphine Martiat, Stijn Van Houtven & Alex Van Steenbergen

Martiat, J., Van Houtven, S. & Van Steenbergen, A. (2025). Does Carbon Pricing Reinforce Job Polarization?. Working Paper 202505, Federal Planning Bureau.

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates whether standard climate tax shift scenarios cause the same labour market patterns as documented by the job polarization literature, namely a relative decline in employment for medium skilled workers compared to other skill types. To that end, we deploy a CGE model calibrated to the Belgian economy, with special focus on the treatment of heterogenous labour demand in a range of both ‘dirty’ and ‘clean’ sectors and on integrating key behavioural and public finance mechanisms from the Euromod micro-simulation model. We find that for a wide range of parameter values and several stylized tax shift scenarios job polarization patterns are reproduced. The intensity of this phenomenon depends, among others, on the substitutability of domestic and international products, on that of skill types with energy in dirty sectors and between skill types in clean sectors. Further research should investigate the ability of modulated, feasible tax shift scenarios can overturn the job polarization result.